The container ship orderbook hit a post-financial disaster low just under 2m TEU in October 2020. Within the eighteen months since then, liner operators have seen report income and a big proportion of those have been poured into newbuilding contracts.
“In simply eighteen months, 6m TEU of newbuilding contracts have been added to the container ship orderbook,” says Niels Rasmussen, Chief Transport Analyst at BIMCO, including: “This has taken the orderbook previous 6.5m TEU for the primary time since late 2008.”
The orderbook is now 26% of the fleet measurement for the primary time since 2014 and, mixed with YTD 2022 deliveries, 6.2m TEU at the moment are scheduled to be delivered throughout 2022-2024.
“Along with the newbuilding deliveries, we should anticipate that congestion issues all over the world will finally start to ease. This might launch as a lot as 2m TEU efficient provide on prime of newbuilding deliveries, and the entire further provide seems to be on the right track to exceed 8m TEU between early 2022 and early 2025, representing 33% of the present fleet measurement in simply three years,” says Rasmussen.
Within the meantime, on the opposite aspect of the availability equation, demolition and crusing pace are very seemingly additionally headed for substantial adjustments. A share of the fleet will be unable to adjust to EEXI targets with out retrofits or introduction of Engine Energy Limitation (EPL). Some vessels might, nonetheless, don’t have any good path to compliance whereas remaining commercially engaging and can be demolished.
The vessels that do obtain EEXI compliance will even be confronted with CII introduction on 1 January 2023 in addition to delivery’s seemingly inclusion within the EU’s Emission Buying and selling Scheme (ETS). It will add additional stress on decreasing GHG emissions and a few vessels might merely be thought of uneconomical to maintain in operation. Others might need to decelerate additional to attain the specified CII score.
“Most homeowners most likely have already got plans in place for his or her particular person vessels. Nonetheless, precisely estimating the influence of EEXI, CII, and ETS on your entire fleet is extraordinarily tough,” says Rasmussen.
“All that appears sure is that we’ll see extra vessels demolished and others decreasing pace. Due to the lowered pace, liner operators might have so as to add a further vessel to a number of providers. Nonetheless, until demand surprises on the upside it seems unlikely that every one the capability being delivered and launched from congestion might be absorbed with out damaging the availability/demand stability within the coming years.”
Supply: BIMCO, By Niels Rasmussen, Chief Transport Analyst at BIMCO