The trans-Atlantic Supramax spot freight charges edged decrease in April amid a tonnage oversupply in East Coast South America whereas disruptions to grains provide within the wake of the Russia-Ukraine battle diverted consumers from the Black Sea to ECSA market.
The trans-Atlantic grains route — Recalada-to-Bejaia 40,000 mt — dropped to $61/mt on April 11 from the year-to-date excessive of $74/mt on March 31, in keeping with Platts evaluation by S&P World Commodity Insights.
The $13/mt drop in spot freight charge might be translated to a decline of over 20% of freight worth.
Russia’s army invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24 threatened grains provides, with buying and selling exercise damage considerably as cargoes loading to Ukraine had been cancelled.
The escalating battle within the Black Sea area raised issues over commerce flows, leading to grains consumers in search of various suppliers within the ECSA market.
There was extra inquiries from ECSA to the Continent for grains, with larger vessels seeing extra buying and selling exercise adopted by Ultramax and Supramax vessels, in keeping with a shipbroker supply.
The disruption to grains cargoes within the Black Sea has supported the ton-mile demand for Continent imports, which had been being sourced from larger distances equivalent to ECSA.
Firmer fixture and buying and selling exercise supported demand for grains cargoes, with time constitution charges shifting up for a Supramax vessel within the ECSA area in March.
The trans-Atlantic grains route, Recalada-to-Bejaia 40,000 mt, displayed fierce buying and selling exercise final month after the invasion, with the tensions within the Black Sea area resulting in uncertainties over commerce flows.
In line with Platts evaluation by S&P World, the trans-Atlantic grains route — Recalada-to-Bejaia 40,000 mt — reached an year-to-date excessive of $74/mt on March 31, up greater than 44% since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24.
Within the meantime, the trans-Atlantic grains route was up greater than 65% from its year-to-date low of $38.75/mt on Feb. 3, in keeping with S&P World information.
Buying and selling in East Coast South America
Argentina is a serious international provider of agricultural merchandise and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has inevitably affected the worldwide provide chain of important agricultural merchandise, significantly wheat, corn, and sunflower oil.
Collectively, Ukraine and Russia account for roughly 28% of world wheat commerce.
Sometimes, Argentina exports between 11 million and 13 million mt of wheat in a advertising and marketing 12 months, with virtually half of the exports shipped to Brazil.
Nevertheless, Argentina’s wheat manufacturing estimates for the advertising and marketing 12 months 2022-2023 is at an all-time excessive of 25 million mt whereas for 2021-2022, the manufacturing was at 20.5 million mt, in keeping with S&P World information.
The document output in 2022-23 would imply greater cargo volumes than earlier years, together with new export locations.
“The consumers within the Center East could search for different suppliers just like the US, Argentina and India to fulfill their wants,” a dealer supply mentioned.
The Ukraine battle has led buying and selling corporations to distance themselves from Russia whereas the dangers to transport have raised prices of insurance coverage, a market supply mentioned.
Solaris Commodities, one of many largest exporters of Russian wheat, has stopped new buying and selling actions from Russia as its focus shifts to international locations equivalent to Argentina and Australia, in keeping with the corporate’s announcement March 15.
Normalization of freight charges after greater tonnage
Supramax markets have proven their unstable nature. The East Coast South America market attracted tonnage and lots of vessels ballasted there amid enchancment in grains buying and selling exercise, a shipbroker mentioned.
“That led to greater tonnage within the area and weakened freight charges,” the shipbroker added.
Softer spot freight charges began to appropriate between end-March and starting of April.
The Recalada-Bejaia time constitution grains route dropped to round $40,000/d from $52,000/d between March 31 and April 5, in keeping with S&P World information.
“Whereas ECSA dragged tonnage with many vessels ballasting there, the market within the Continent picked up and confirmed higher numbers,” the shipbroker added.
Bearish clouds fashioned over the trans-Atlantic enterprise as grains demand was lined by the over-tonnage capability within the area, with market contributors fixing larger dry bulk vessels to hold cargoes.
“Grain exports from ECSA is finished primarily from larger dry bulk vessels and never a lot from Supramaxes in the meanwhile,” a shipowner supply mentioned.